Mr. Market digs Geert

Dutch stock market index indicates victory for the Freedom Party leader

Populist Geert Wilders, despite a downturn in the polls, is in a dead heat with incumbent Prime Minister Mark Rutte with fullsizeoutput_d07one week to go before the Netherlands election.

The polls don’t fool Mr. Market. Wilders, known as the ‘Dutch Trump,’ is driving the Dutch AEX benchmark stock index to levels that are outpacing gains seen in other European indexes.

There same thing happened with Donald Trump in the closing days of the U.S. election. The pro-Trump polls started dipping and the Clinton campaign and the liberal pundits were confident of victory.


More than 20 percent of the revenue from companies that comprise the AEX comes from the U.S., thus a booming American economy means good times for the Netherlands.

In the U.S., markets began soaring after Trump won in November, with the Dow index hitting a record 21,000 points last month. Same deal in the U.K., where stocks climbed within days of the Brexit vote.

Bottom line: The Dutch markets are pricing in the odds of a Wilders victory, the chance of which is stronger than polls and pundits suggest.

As it was, resoundingly, with Donald Trump.